The economic toll of the Middle East war became undeniable Thursday as Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, crossed $100 a barrel again despite the largest emergency crude release in the history of international energy cooperation. The price rise reflects a simple and brutal arithmetic: the supply being lost to Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure exceeds the supply being added by reserve releases. Markets are beginning to price in a scenario where this imbalance persists for months.
Iranian forces struck merchant ships near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel tanks in Bahrain, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, and port facilities adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. The Thai vessel Mayuree Naree was hit, with three crew members reported trapped. Iraq halted all crude exports and Oman cleared its main export terminal.
Brent gained 9% Thursday to touch $100.29 before settling at $98, still up around 6%. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. The price has risen from $60 at the year’s start to a peak of $119 this week. The Strait of Hormuz, carrying roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and gas, has been closed since February 28.
The IEA’s 32 members released 400 million barrels of emergency crude in a record coordinated action. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Energy Secretary Chris Wright accused Iran of deliberately threatening allied energy security. President Trump pledged to continue the military campaign.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of a stagflationary shock. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.2%, and European gas climbed 7.7%.